2024 Outlook

Dear Friend,

After two years of exceptional growth driven by ‘revenge spending’ post-COVID, we anticipate a continued normalized growth like 2023 for the luxury industry. Here are some of our predictions for 2024:

The growth will primarily come from High Net Worth (HNW) and Ultra-High Net Worth (UHNW) 

1. The growth will primarily come from High Net Worth (HNW) and Ultra-High Net Worth (UHNW) consumers. Brands should prioritize their top-tier and Very Important Clients (VICs). High-net-worth individuals often seek unique and memorable experiences. Luxury brands should explore partnerships with exclusive events, travel packages, or luxury services to enhance their offerings. Continuous innovation in product design and technology can attract high-end customers. Offering limited edition or bespoke items can be especially appealing. Finally, collaborating with other luxury brands or influencers is not showing sign of fatigue for this target audience.

Quiet luxury

2. ”Quiet luxury” refers to a discreet and understated form of luxury that focuses on quality, craftsmanship, and exclusivity rather than overt branding or conspicuous consumption. Our data show that the trend of ‘Quiet Luxury’ will continue to gain popularity. High-end brands like Brunello Cucinelli, Loro Piana, and Aman Hotels will solidify their positions in the market.

Aspirational and affluent consumers will remain cautious with their luxury

3. Aspirational and affluent consumers will remain cautious with their luxury spending due to the global economic outlook and low consumer confidence in most global markets. They may opt for smaller luxury indulgences instead of making large, high-ticket purchases. This could include buying luxury beauty products, fragrances, or accessories rather than big-ticket items like designer clothing or high-end electronics, as well as new experiences such as luxury cafes offered by brands like Tiffany, Dior, Prada and Maison Margiela. Cautious consumers may be more inclined to wait for sales, promotions, or discounts before making luxury purchases. This way, they can still acquire high-quality items but at a reduced cost. Brands need to revisit their product portfolio to offer a larger variety of entry level price points, rather than discounts and promotions. The first half of 2024 will be critical to make this adjustment and to lower inventory accumulated through the post pandemic boom.

The travel industry is expected to thrive

4. The travel industry is expected to thrive leading to a shift in the allocation of consumers’ budgets from luxury goods to luxury travel and exclusive experiences. Our data shows an increase in the share of wallet for travel and travel experiences compared to products over the past year. But over tourism in many previously premium locations may dampen HNW and UHNW enthusiasm for travelling.

China is still in a recovery phase

5. China is still in a recovery phase and the delay in Chinese travellers going overseas will continue to impact luxury goods sales globally. However, there are bright spots, including a stable market in Japan and the potential for rapid growth in India, the Middle East and Saudi Arabia. USA is also showing signs of strong growth, although clouds remain on the horizon due to the upcoming elections and geopolitical tensions that may disrupt the economy.

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